West Asia crisis threatens 12 million jobs in India, Green shift can offer hope, finds study

West Asia Crisis Threatens 12 Million Jobs in India, Green Shift Offers Hope

The Study’s Findings

Theindiapostdaily.com – The ongoing US-Iran conflict in West Asia has created a significant risk to millions of livelihoods across India, according to a new peer-reviewed study by IPE Global titled “Paving a Green Transition: A New Social Contract Amid West Asia Crisis.” The report highlights that nearly 10–12 million jobs are vulnerable in critical sectors, but also identifies a potential pathway for transformation through a rapid green shift.

While India has demonstrated strong policy aspirations, the study notes that existing initiatives like PM-KUSUM, the National Green Hydrogen Mission, and the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme operate in separate domains. This fragmentation limits their collective impact, suggesting the need for integrated strategies across agriculture, energy, and industry to fully harness the country’s potential for sustainable growth.

“The West Asia crisis has exposed how energy security, food security, livelihoods, and climate resilience are interconnected. Our analysis shows that addressing these issues in isolation is no longer viable,” said Ashwajit Singh, founder and managing director of IPE Global.

US-Iran War Agreement

President Donald Trump formally signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding on June 17, extending the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. This agreement aims to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz and includes a commitment from Iran to forgo nuclear weapon development. The deal also allocates a $300 billion fund for the country’s reconstruction and economic development, though the U.S. is not obligated to contribute.

“The numbers tell a story India cannot afford to ignore. With 85% of its crude oil imported and 10–12 million livelihoods across agriculture, energy, and industry exposed to a single geopolitical shock from West Asia, the fragility is real,” remarked Abinash Mohanty, lead author of the study and head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global.

Geographic Mismatch in Job Opportunities

The study reveals a disparity between states most affected by job losses and those best positioned to absorb green employment. Regions like Rajasthan and Gujarat, with abundant renewable resources, and Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, centered on industrial zones, are more likely to generate green jobs. In contrast, Kerala, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh face greater risks from the crisis but may lack the infrastructure to capitalize on new opportunities.

This geographic imbalance has direct consequences for workforce retraining, migration policies, and the allocation of green investments. The report advocates for targeted measures, such as accelerating PM-KUSUM and promoting natural farming in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, to address local job losses effectively rather than relying solely on national-level job creation statistics.