Monsoon starts to withdraw from northwest India

Southwest Monsoon Begins Its Seasonal Retreat From Northwest India

Theindiapostdaily.com – The southwest monsoon has started moving out of northwest India, signalling the beginning of its usual annual withdrawal after months of rain across the country. The India Meteorological Department said the system withdrew further on 21 September from additional parts of Rajasthan and from areas of Haryana and Punjab.

Its retreat is a closely watched phase of India’s weather calendar. The southwest monsoon is responsible for roughly 70% of the country’s yearly rainfall, making its arrival, distribution and departure important for agriculture, reservoirs and economic activity in rural areas.

Conditions Support Further Withdrawal

Weather conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to retreat further during the next two to three days. The next stage may cover the remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh and Delhi, along with more areas of Rajasthan.

Parts of Saurashtra and Kutch may also see the withdrawal advance, as could portions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh. The timing and pace of the retreat can vary from year to year because it depends on rainfall patterns and wider atmospheric conditions.

Normally, the southwest monsoon begins its withdrawal from western Rajasthan in September. It then gradually recedes through northwest and central India before moving toward the southern peninsula and eastern parts of the country. The transition does not mean that rain ends immediately everywhere; substantial rainfall can continue in many regions even as the broader monsoon circulation starts retreating from the northwest.

Seasonal Rainfall Remains Below Normal

From 1 June to 21 September, India received cumulative rainfall of 703.7 mm during the southwest monsoon season. That is 15% below the normal level of 827.2 mm for the same period.

The seasonal total matters beyond the immediate weather outlook. Rainfall influences soil moisture, crop conditions and the availability of water in reservoirs. It also shapes rural demand and farm output, particularly in areas that depend heavily on monsoon precipitation rather than assured irrigation.

A nationwide rainfall figure can also mask large differences between regions. Some locations may experience repeated heavy showers while others remain relatively dry. For farmers, local timing can be just as important as the overall seasonal total, especially during planting, crop growth and harvesting periods.

Central and Eastern India Set for More Rain

While the monsoon begins withdrawing from parts of the northwest, wet conditions are expected to continue across several central and eastern states during the coming week.

West Madhya Pradesh is likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall from 22 to 27 September. Rain activity is forecast to strengthen in east Madhya Pradesh, where fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected between 23 and 27 September.

Vidarbha may receive widespread rain throughout 22-27 September. Chhattisgarh is also expected to see fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over the same six-day period.

Eastern India is likely to remain notably wet. Jharkhand and Odisha are forecast to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from 22 to 27 September. Similar conditions are expected in Gangetic West Bengal during that period.

Residents in areas receiving persistent rain may need to keep track of local weather updates, particularly where travel, fieldwork or outdoor activity could be affected. Periods of widespread rainfall can also increase pressure on drainage systems and make road conditions more difficult in vulnerable locations.

Rain Outlook for Northern States

Rainfall activity is also expected in several northern states despite the withdrawal process underway farther west. Uttarakhand is likely to receive isolated to scattered rain from 22 to 25 September, followed by fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on 26 and 27 September.

Jammu and Kashmir-Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh may see isolated to scattered rainfall between 24 and 27 September. Uttar Pradesh is expected to experience an increase in rain activity later in the week.

Punjab and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall on 26 and 27 September. This illustrates the uneven nature of the seasonal transition: the monsoon may retreat from an area in meteorological terms while short spells of rain still occur.

Southern Peninsula Also Faces Active Weather

Several parts of the southern peninsula are likely to see extensive rain during the forecast period. Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, along with north interior Karnataka, are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from 22 to 25 September.

Telangana is forecast to receive widespread rainfall from 22 to 26 September. South interior Karnataka may see fairly widespread to widespread rain from 22 to 24 September.

The monsoon’s retreat from northwest India is therefore only one part of a broader and changing weather pattern. As the season shifts, the focus of rainfall can move across regions, leaving some areas dry while bringing active conditions to others. For households, farmers and local authorities, the immediate forecast remains especially relevant as rain continues across large stretches of central, eastern, northern and southern India.