Israel pre-election survey: Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar leads Netanyahu’s Likud
Yashar Edges Past Likud in Latest Israeli Pre-Election Poll
Theindiapostdaily.com – A Kantar Institute survey released on Wednesday, August 19, places former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar movement at the top of Israel's political landscape, holding a slim one-seat advantage over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud bloc. The Kantar poll, fielded on August 18, assigns Yashar 24 of the 120 Knesset seats, compared with 23 for Likud. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad list trails in third place with a projected 14 seats.
Coalition and Opposition Math
Looking at the broader alignment, Netanyahu's existing governing coalition is forecast to command 52 seats, while the opposition camp would capture 57. Arab-list parties are expected to retain 11 seats collectively. Analysts note that the overall balance of power in the chamber is unlikely to shift dramatically from the current configuration.
Likud Primaries Test Netanyahu's Grip
The polling arrives just days after Likud members cast ballots in internal primaries to determine the party's slate for the October 27 general election. Voter participation hit 53%, roughly ten percentage points above the turnout recorded in the 2022 primary cycle, per party figures.
Observers treated the primary outcome as a referendum on the prime minister's continued command over his own list. The leading slots were claimed overwhelmingly by figures widely regarded as loyal to Netanyahu. Energy Minister Eli Cohen claimed the number-one position, ahead of Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, Justice Minister Yariv Levin, Transportation Minister Miri Regev, and coalition chairman Ofir Katz.
In a separate move last month, the Likud Central Committee ratified a rule permitting Netanyahu to personally designate eight names among the first thirty on the party list. At 76 years old, Netanyahu greeted the primary results with approval, framing them as validation ahead of his bid for yet another term. He remains the longest-tenured prime minister in Israeli history, though the upcoming contest pits him against a field of formidable challengers.
Remaining Parties in the Poll
Yair Golan's Democrats were projected to take 10 seats. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu each landed at nine. United Torah Judaism registered eight, while Arye Deri's Shas came in at seven.
On the Arab side, Hadash-Ta'al was forecast to hold six seats and Mansour Abbas's Ra'am to win five. Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party also sat at five, marking a one-seat gain over the prior Kantar reading.
Methodology
The survey invited 2,327 individuals to respond; 558 adults aged 18 and older completed the questionnaire. Administration was conducted online and encompassed respondents from the Arab sector. The stated margin of sampling error stood at ±4.2%.
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