Deportation effect? Illegal immigration from India to US through donkey route sees nearly 70 % drop
Deportation Effect: 70% Drop in Indian Illegal Immigration via Donkey Route
Deportation effect Illegal immigration from India - The deportation effect has significantly impacted illegal immigration from India to the United States. Recent data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reveals an 8-month period from October 2025 to May 2026, during which encounters with undocumented Indian migrants dropped by nearly 70%, according to reports. This decline marks a pivotal shift in the trend of Indian nationals seeking entry into the U.S. through the so-called "donkey route," a method that has long been a key pathway for unauthorized immigration.
Decline in Border Crossings and Its Implications
Analysis by Hindustan Times shows that the number of border encounters involving Indian illegal immigrants fell to 20,614 during the period, compared to 67,212 in FY2023. This substantial decrease suggests that the deportation effect may be reshaping the migration landscape. The donkey route, which involves paying human traffickers for passage, has become less attractive as the cost of deportation rises and the likelihood of being apprehended increases.
While the exact cause of the drop remains under scrutiny, experts attribute it to a combination of factors, including stricter border enforcement, enhanced detection methods, and the far-reaching impact of Trump’s immigration policies. The term "deportation effect" has gained traction as a label for the policy-driven reduction in unauthorized arrivals, particularly from South Asian countries like India.
Trump’s Deportation Strategy and Its Impact
Donald Trump’s administration, which prioritized mass deportations as a core component of its immigration strategy, launched intensified operations in February 2025. These efforts targeted undocumented immigrants, including those from India, with specialized flights organized to return them to their home country. The first such flight, departing from the U.S. on February 5, transported 104 Indian migrants to Amritsar, India, highlighting the scale of the deportation effect in action.
By December 2025, the Ministry of External Affairs reported that 3,258 Indian illegal immigrants had been returned, the highest number recorded in recent years. This surge in deportations, coupled with the use of military and chartered flights, has created a logistical network aimed at expediting the repatriation of undocumented individuals. The policy has not only affected migrants but also their families, who face the emotional and financial toll of separation.
Understanding the Donkey Route
The donkey route, also known as the "dunky route," is a well-established network for illegal immigration. It begins with Indian nationals traveling through countries like Nepal, Bhutan, or Bangladesh, where they are often processed as legal immigrants before entering Central America. From there, they endure arduous journeys through jungles, swamps, and gang-controlled regions, finally reaching Mexico or Canada for asylum applications.
According to Pew Research Center, approximately 18,000 Indian nationals reside in the U.S. illegally, making up one of the largest undocumented communities in the country. The cost of crossing the border via this route typically ranges from ₹35 lakh to ₹80 lakh, a significant financial burden for many families. The recent decline in encounters may indicate that these high costs, combined with the threat of deportation, are deterring potential migrants.
Despite the drop in numbers, the donkey route remains a critical pathway for those seeking to bypass traditional immigration channels. However, the deportation effect has added an extra layer of risk, prompting some to reconsider their plans or opt for alternative routes. This shift underscores the growing influence of deportation policies on migration patterns.
Broader Impacts on South Asian Immigration
The deportation effect is not limited to India alone. It has also affected other South Asian countries, including Pakistan and Bangladesh, which have seen a reduction in the number of migrants attempting to enter the U.S. via similar routes. This trend highlights the interconnected nature of regional migration and the global reach of U.S. deportation policies.
Experts suggest that the success of the deportation effect in curbing Indian illegal immigration could serve as a model for addressing other migrant flows. However, they also caution that the long-term impact depends on sustained enforcement efforts and the ability to balance deportation with humanitarian considerations. The policy’s effectiveness in reducing unauthorized entries may be complemented by economic factors, such as improved job opportunities in India, which have reduced the urgency for migration.
As the U.S. continues to refine its immigration strategies, the deportation effect remains a defining element of its approach. While the data shows a 70% drop in Indian illegal immigration, the broader implications for global migration patterns and diplomatic relations are still unfolding. The U.S. government’s commitment to this policy may shape future trends in the region for years to come.